Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.